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Ah, @Nadastar my bad, I misunderstood your statement then. You are probably absolutely correct in your assessment, as obviously the majority of the 1-2% of site cheaters will be in classical (so 3-5% of classical players is not a stretch by any means) and most of those cheaters will be at the highest levels because...well, cheating. lol So 15-20% of the top is also quite logical. I hope lichess continues to do a good job of catching them, and it gets easier and easier each time they return.
The problem is that say we go high and 5% are cheats. Let's say 25,000 players, 5% of them are cheaters. That's 50 players. 50 players doesn't seem like a huge amount, but when 99% of them are going to reach ratings above 1800 you're now looking at 49 or 50 players in a pool of less than 10,000. Over 2100 rating, probably going to still see 47 or 48 of those 50. And so on it goes. Even when you reach the top 1000 you'll have at least 35-40 of those guys.
I think though that they are starting to get caught earlier and earlier so they never make it there. That's why there's so many complaints about cheaters these days, more people are seeing them because they are getting caught, making new accounts, coming back and climbing, and getting caught again before they make it anywhere near the top 200. For some reason they keep trying though.
The problem is that say we go high and 5% are cheats. Let's say 25,000 players, 5% of them are cheaters. That's 50 players. 50 players doesn't seem like a huge amount, but when 99% of them are going to reach ratings above 1800 you're now looking at 49 or 50 players in a pool of less than 10,000. Over 2100 rating, probably going to still see 47 or 48 of those 50. And so on it goes. Even when you reach the top 1000 you'll have at least 35-40 of those guys.
I think though that they are starting to get caught earlier and earlier so they never make it there. That's why there's so many complaints about cheaters these days, more people are seeing them because they are getting caught, making new accounts, coming back and climbing, and getting caught again before they make it anywhere near the top 200. For some reason they keep trying though.
wow....bad math, sorry.
5% of 25,000 is 1250
that mean almost all 1250 cheaters remaining among the top 10,000 classical players
probably 1200 or more above 2100 rating, where they settle in for awhile and either give up because they can't get higher or get caught
probably 120-200 break into the top 1000 players.
Basically what I was getting at is the largest concentration of cheaters will always be between 2100 rating and below the top 1000, but because a lot of those 120-200 top-tier cheaters have been getting caught and come back with alts. So while the pool of cheaters may have been drying up there, the more cheaters that get caught at the top the more apparent cheating becomes visible.
5% of 25,000 is 1250
that mean almost all 1250 cheaters remaining among the top 10,000 classical players
probably 1200 or more above 2100 rating, where they settle in for awhile and either give up because they can't get higher or get caught
probably 120-200 break into the top 1000 players.
Basically what I was getting at is the largest concentration of cheaters will always be between 2100 rating and below the top 1000, but because a lot of those 120-200 top-tier cheaters have been getting caught and come back with alts. So while the pool of cheaters may have been drying up there, the more cheaters that get caught at the top the more apparent cheating becomes visible.
Ive just reported another (I believe) cheater. His av. c/pawn loss is very suspect-esp. against much higher rated players whom he beats.
Until this post, I didn't realise there was a top 200 list for each rating category. Nice to know!
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